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TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW
Small is the key word that describes the world of
nanotechnology. The concept centers on miniaturization, and
involves the creation of particles, fibers, films, coatings,
and other materials that are significantly smaller than the
typical bacterium—between one and 100 nanometers in size.
Because these particles are so tiny, nano-objects can access
previously impenetrable areas. That means they can make
consumer products lighter, stronger, and more
efficient—creating a significant competitive advantage for
the companies incorporating them into their goods. In an era
when consumers are demanding products that are more
effective, protective, and assistive, nanomaterials provide
the perfect fit.
Industries and consumers are also demanding more efficient
use of resources and fewer waste streams. Again,
nanomaterials fit the bill. Additionally, rising energy
costs and the insecurity of petroleum supplies are driving
research into nanomaterials that can boost production from
alternative sources, or cut demand via greater energy
efficiency.
CHALLENGES AHEAD
As nanotech emerges as a major technological force over the
coming decades, it will face a variety of obstacles. These
include:
Mastering nanoscale behavior. To date, the potential
interactions of nanoscale matter are not understood, von
Stackelberg explains. “As research progresses, we may find
that nanomaterials do not act as expected, leading to
unanticipated and potentially harmful consequences. Once
understanding improves about how matter behaves at the
nanoscale, researchers will be able to develop increasingly
sophisticated applications of nanotech while avoiding human
side effects.”
Public fears. The perception of the benefits vs. hazards of
nanotech will have a significant impact on consumer
acceptance of the technology. “A survey conducted in 2006
showed that although 42% of those polled had no awareness of
nanotech, 20% had heard a little about it and 11% were quite
familiar with it,” von Stackelberg says—noting that the
majority of those in the know believed that the risks of
nanotech outweigh the benefits (35%). Only 15% said they
believe the benefits outweigh the risks, and 7% said the
benefits and risks are about equal.
Nanotech risks. “Obviously, a rational assessment of the
true risks of nanotechnology are needed to ensure that
wildcards like ‘grey goo’ don’t dominate the discussions of
risk while other, more realistic risks are ignored,” he
points out. The potential for severe risk have been
identified by the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, and
include:
Health and environmental risks. A growing body of scientific
evidence reports that nanomaterials have the potential to
pollute air, soil, and water and to damage human health.
Some of the most interesting properties of nanomaterials—such
as the ability of nanoparticles to penetrate human
cells—also present health risks if these particles escape
into the environment, where they can be absorbed into
people’s bodies. “Our understanding of the potential health
and environmental implications of nanotech are extremely
limited,” adds von Stackelberg.
Proliferation of “nanolitter.” As more sophisticated
nanomaterials become widely used, nano-byproducts will need
to be dealt with. For instance, it isn’t currently known
whether nanoparticles used to treat cancer can remain in a
patient’s body or be excreted. “The reality is that
nanomaterials which are useful and benign in one setting can
actually be harmful in another,” von Stackelberg explains.
Criminal or terrorist use. Small, powerful weapons made from
nanomaterials would be difficult for society to defend
against.
FORECASTS
Although the underlying concepts of nanotechnology were
thought up in 1959, only during the 1990s were the first
tentative steps taken toward identifying and developing
nanomaterials. “Between the end of the first decade of the
21st century and 2025, a number of gamechangers will need to
occur if nanotech is to advance significantly,” von
Stackelberg says. These gamechangers include:
A shift from “passive” to “active” nanotech. In the coming
decades, nanotech will likely make the transition from
simple nanomachines—particles, crystals, rods, tubes, and
sheets of atoms—to more complex ones that contain valves,
switches, pumps, and motors.
Nanoscale tools. To work at the nanoscale, new tools will be
needed to allow researchers and technicians to see, measure,
and manipulate individual atoms and molecules. “One
promising approach uses dynamic light scattering, a
technique that measures how much nanoparticles jiggle when
hit with laser light,” von Stackelberg shares. “Many
scientists agree that this method has the potential to do
rapid, accurate measurement, and is expected to be
operational by 2010.”
Nanofabrication. Currently, manufacturing processes for
nanomaterials are extremely expensive, produce only small
amounts of material, and generate a significant amount of
impurities and waste, von Stackelberg says. “But consider
this: Assembly of nanodevices today is at the same stage as
the automobile industry was before Henry Ford developed the
assembly line.”
LEARN MORE
To determine the relevance of these findings and forecasts
for major business sectors, set up an interview with Peter
von Stackelberg by sending an email to Hope Gibbs, leader of
corporate communications, at
hope.gibbs@socialtechnologies.com.
Peter von Stackelberg - Futurist
Peter von Stackelberg, the leader of Social Technologies’
Futures Interactive program, brings more than a decade of
experience as a futurist, strategic thinker, and writer. He
also serves as an adjunct instructor in strategic management
of technology and innovation at the State University of New
York–Alfred, and as an advisor to the computer animation
program at Alfred State. Peter has previously worked as a
journalist, business analyst, university webmaster,
e-commerce project manager, published poet, and computer
artist. He is former editor-in-chief of Shaping Tomorrow and
the founder of Applied Futures and FuturesWatch.org. He
received a BA in journalism from Ryerson Polytechnical
University in Toronto, Canada, and an MS in studies of the
future from the University of Houston–Clear Lake, and has
taken graduate courses in creative writing, computer art,
and art history in pursuit of an MA in Humanities. Areas of
expertise: Biotechnology, energy (green, renewable, oil),
nanotechnology, future of technology, scenario planning.
About Social Technologies
Social Technologies is a global research and consulting firm
specializing in the integration of foresight, strategy, and
innovation. With offices in Washington DC, London, and
Shanghai, Social Technologies serves the world’s leading
companies, government agencies, and nonprofits. A holistic,
long-term perspective combined with actionable business
solutions helps clients mitigate risk, make the most of
opportunities, and enrich decision-making. For information
visit www.socialtechnologies.com, our blog:
http://changewaves.socialtechnologies.com, and our
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