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Scenario Series
Depicts Nanotech Revolution
Other Topics:
Nanowire Battery,
Nanotech Semiconductor,Nanotech Coatings
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
December 11, 2007
Brooklyn, NY -- Across eight separate storylines, an
international team of policy, technology, and economic
specialists has imagined in detail a range of events to see
how they might affect the development of advanced
nanotechnology over the next 15 years. |
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The non-profit Center for Responsible
Nanotechnology (CRN) today released a series of scenarios
depicting various versions of a near-future world into which
transformative manufacturing concepts may emerge. Across
eight separate storylines, an international team of policy,
technology, and economic specialists organized by CRN
imagined in detail a range of plausible, challenging events
-- from pandemics to climate crises to international
conflicts -- to see how they might affect the development of
advanced nanotechnology over the next 15 years.
Future generations of nanotechnology will use sophisticated
nanoscale machinery to construct powerful products with
molecular precision. Such ‘molecular manufacturing’ could
lead to revolutionary capacities, including tabletop fully
automated factories capable of constructing duplicate
factories in less than a day. Some experts think this may be
achieved as early as 2020.
“While a 15-year time frame for the development of desktop
nanofactories is arguably optimistic,” said Mike Treder,
Executive Director of CRN, “it is by no means outrageous, as
recent events indicate [see Notes below]. That’s why we
think this scenario series is timely and important.”
All eight scenarios, plus an introduction putting them into
context, were posted online today at Nanowerk.com, as well
on CRN’s main website. The scenarios also will be published
in the peer-reviewed print journal, Nanotechnology
Perceptions, beginning early next year.
“Although the basic concepts of molecular manufacturing go
back as far as 1959,” said Jessica Margolin, CRN’s Director
of Research Communities, “it is only in the last few years
that technology has advanced to the point where we can begin
to see the practical steps that might bring it to fruition.
What is still uncertain, however, is precisely how it will
emerge.”
It is for that reason that CRN initiated a project early in
2007 to create a series of professional-quality scenarios of
a near-future world in which exponential general-purpose
molecular manufacturing might be developed and deployed. In
pursuing this project, CRN pulled together more than 50
people from six continents, with a range of backgrounds and
points of view, as collaborators. Over the course of several
months, a unique series of “virtual workshops” -- using a
combination of teleconferencing, Internet chat, and online
shared documents -- produced eight intriguing scenarios.
“The scenarios we’ve created examine possible outcomes of
different nanotechnology developmental pathways across a
variety of nations,” said Jamais Cascio, CRN’s Director of
Impacts Analysis. “These scenarios are not predictions, and
do not represent outcomes desired by CRN. We intend them to
provide a springboard for discussions of molecular
manufacturing policies and societal responses.”
The scenario approach offers a tool for the examination of
internally consistent possibilities regarding a particular
topic as a way to test and reconsider strategies. While each
scenario can be understood individually, the real value of
the process comes from the comparison of multiple scenarios.
A strategic response that appears robust in one scenario may
be dangerous in another; an organization, community, or
polity using these scenarios to consider how to handle the
emergence of molecular manufacturing should strive for
responses that are viable across multiple scenarios.
“We’re proud of what we and all our collaborators have
accomplished here,” said Treder, “but it’s only a beginning.
We hope this project will help to stimulate a thorough
investigation of the benefits and risks of nanofactory
technology to find what might be done now and in the next
few years to mitigate the dangers and increase the
likelihood of beneficial outcomes.”
NOTES
Recent events increasing the potential for rapid development
of nanofactory technology include:
1. A study released by the U.S. National Research Council in
December 2006 reviewing the theoretical basis of molecular
manufacturing and calling for funding of experimental
research.
2. A request for proposals issued by DARPA in July 2007 for
developing tip-based nanofabrication at the threshold of
atomic precision.
3. An announcement of U.K. government grants in October 2007
to research teams developing nanomachines that can build
materials molecule by molecule.
4. The December 2007 publication of a Technology Roadmap for
Productive Nanosystems, marking the completion of a broad,
years-long, multidisciplinary effort to explore how current
laboratory techniques for atomically precise fabrication can
be extended, step by step, toward increasingly advanced
products and capabilities.
The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology is a research and
advocacy organization concerned with the major societal and
environmental implications of advanced nanotechnology. CRN
is an affiliate of World Care, an international, non-profit,
501(c)(3) organization. The opinions of CRN do not
necessarily represent those of World Care. |
